đŸŸȘ Everybody's trading on the weekend

How well do Hyperliquid prices predict Monday's opening?

March 08, 2026

☕ Opening bell(wether)

This article by @0xmattegoat analyzes whether weekend prices on Hyperliquid meaningfully predict how traditional markets reopen. Using data from a geopolitical news event and broader weekend samples, the author shows that Hyperliquid markets react within seconds to new information and often move before many other crypto-linked instruments. 

Across 35 assets, weekend prices predicted the direction of the Monday opening gap with 100% accuracy in one sample and about 90% accuracy across nine weekends, with a median error of just 14 basis points. 

The conclusion is that Hyperliquid weekend markets are highly informative, though the best signal appears a few hours before traditional markets reopen.

Bowing to criticism, Polymarket has stopped people from betting on the probability of a nuclear detonation occurring. At the time it was pulled, the market put the odds of a nuclear detonation before year’s end — deliberate, accidental, or in testing — at 24%.

In Thursday’s newsletter, Byron muses whether prediction markets on disasters could possibly be a deterrent to those events, because they strike fear into observers — see George Soros’ dictum that financial markets are constantly anticipating things that fail to happen “exactly because they have been anticipated.”

On this episode of the Empire podcast, Santi is joined by Pranav Kanade and Tushar Jain. The speakers argue crypto is near the end of a downturn, with sentiment washed-out but fundamentals stronger due to growing institutional adoption. 

They believe the market is mispricing the stack: Applications and cash-flowing protocols capture much of the value but are undervalued relative to L1 blockchains, creating a potential “apps vs. L1s” trade. They also expect AI and stablecoins to accelerate crypto adoption, with long-term value accruing to platforms that control users or liquidity rather than base infrastructure.

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