📚 0xResearch reading recs

Kalshi and the rise of macro markets

The Federal Reserve Board examines how Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, generates real-time, market-based forecasts for key macroeconomic variables and policy outcomes. 

The authors compare Kalshi’s prediction market-implied expectations with traditional survey and financial market forecasts, finding that Kalshi delivers high-frequency and distribution-rich information that can complement existing measures. 

Their results suggest that these markets provide well-calibrated density forecasts and respond meaningfully to macroeconomic news, offering a valuable new benchmark for researchers and policymakers interested in expectations and uncertainty. 

HIP-4: Making all markets Hyperliquid

Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 proposal introduces fully collateralized “outcome” contracts that generalize prediction markets and bounded payoff options. These let users trade on any event or state of the world directly on the main Hyperliquid order book rather than in siloed venues.

Building on HIP-3 (which enabled permissionless perps, including RWAs like Nasdaq futures and gold), HIP-4 adds contracts that settle within predefined ranges or discrete outcomes, so markets don’t rely on continuous price oracles or liquidation mechanics in the same way as traditional perps. This design is especially useful for things like pre-IPO pricing or binary events, where perps today lean on fragile offchain reference prices. Instead, outcome contracts settle on the realized result, reducing oracle risk and adversarial “toxic” flow against market makers.

RWA lending: The road to $10 billion

Silvio Busonero argues that RWA lending is still small (~$1.6 billion, ~3% of DeFi lending) but steadily growing, with Morpho and Kamino leading the pack. He describes that getting to $10 billion+ hinges on four things: liquid secondary markets, standardized legal wrappers (like credit-style structures), flexible/zk-friendly compliance, and real distribution via neobanks and stablecoin apps. 

He thinks lending protocols are slowly turning into fintech backends, and that the protocols which best bridge onchain efficiency with TradFi constraints will be the next big DeFi growth sector, similarly to how stablecoins and prediction markets matured into clear PMF.

_{Brought to you by:}

US Treasuries are the lifeblood of our financial system, providing collateral to support transactions, but outdated legacy systems hinder collateral mobility.

A new white paper from the ValueExchange dives into the future of collateral mobility, RWA tokenization, and what we can learn from a recent series of on-chain repo transactions conducted on Canton, the only public blockchain built for institutional finance.

With over $8T tokenized transactions flowing on Canton every month, including over $350B of on-chain US Treasuries moving daily, Canton is building the scalable, always-on capital markets infrastructure of the future.

DAS NYC's lineup is bringing the biggest names in finance to the stage.

Don't miss the institutional gathering of the year — this March 24−26.