Friday charts: the Knickerbocker economy

In 1999, a nosebleed seat to see the Knicks play the Spurs in the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden reportedly cost about $495 on the secondary market (face value was just $60).

In 2026, a similar seat to see the Knicks play the Spurs in the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden costs about $8,000 — a 1,516% increase.

Few things have kept pace.

The consumer price index is up just 94% in that time. The median price of a US house, 153%. Tuition at a private college is about 193% more expensive. The S&P 500 index is up 435%. Even the Nasdaq 100 is up “just” 1,042%.

If consumers are having an affordability crisis, Knicks fans are living through an affordability apocalypse.

Why have sports tickets in general and Knicks tickets in particular gotten so out of reach?

Part of the answer is a simple general-equilibrium effect: The price of a television set to watch games on has fallen by 95% since 1999 (in real terms), which leaves us with more money to spend on going to games.

But Madison Square Garden still seats just 19,500 Knicks fans, so more money is chasing the same number of tickets.

The advent of smartphones has pushed tickets to the absolute limit of what people are willing to pay. In 1999, price discovery happened between fans and scalpers on the 7th Avenue sidewalk outside MSG. Today, it happens between everyone on SeatGeek (which is everyone).

There are reasons specific to the New York Knicks, as well: Fortuitously positioned between Wall Street and Broadway, the fan base is populated with high-spending investment bankers, corporate lawyers, movie stars and newsletter writers.

There’s also decades of pent-up demand. The Knickerbockers haven’t been in the NBA Finals since 1999. Even more tragically, they haven’t won a title since 1973.

But the biggest factor of all is that we live in an experience economy.

In 1998, B. Joseph Pine and James H. Gilmore published a seminal piece in Harvard Business Review outlining a Progression of Economic Value — a framework of business theory showing that as societies grow wealthier and basic needs are more easily met, consumer demand climbs a ladder from commodities to goods, from goods to services, and from services to experiences.

This inflates the price of things like sports tickets. As physical items inevitably become cheap, ubiquitous and digitized, the authors explained, the modern consumer’s search for value naturally shifts toward events that are inherently memorable.

I can attest that few things are more memorable than a Knicks playoff game.

The transcendent feeling of being in the second-to-last row of the Garden to watch Patrick Ewing’s Knicks beat Larry Bird’s Celtics in Game 3 of the first round of the 1988 NBA playoffs is unforgettable.

(The fact that they lost all three of the other games in the series is also unforgettable, unfortunately.) 

I don’t know what my Uncle Nick paid for those tickets, but I’m sure it was reasonable by today’s standards. Pine and Gilmore would say that 1988 was just about the start of the experience economy, which has been expanding ever since. 

It was a slow boil to start — even in 1999, NBA Finals tickets were still comparatively reasonable. But the price of memorable experiences grew inexorably, with the internet, social media and even the pandemic accelerating the trend.

Now, AI seems likely to supercharge it.

As AI makes digital entertainment cheaper to produce and manufactured goods more abundant, people will increasingly compete for the ultimate scarce asset: being there when something unforgettable happens.

I shudder to think what a ticket to the NBA Finals — at Madison Square Garden, of course — will cost us in the year 2050.

Let’s check the charts.

The best-performing experience:

BLS data estimates that the average price of tickets to sporting events rose by 123% between 2000 and 2025. The price of movies, theater, and concert tickets were up a comparatively modest 105%.

The superstar effect:

Ben Treanor writes that the price of a concert ticket to a major concert tour has risen from $25.81 in 1996 to $136.46 today — a 428.7% increase.

NFL tickets have outperformed the most.

If the Jets or Giants ever make it back to the Super Bowl, look out.

The money has to go somewhere.

When we save money on things like toys and TVs, we have more to spend on things like tuition and daycare.

Economic evolution:

Expensive Knicks tickets is a sign that we’re progressing. Economically, at least.

Some technical analysis:

Based on history, we can expect the Nasdaq to rocket 76% higher over the next nine months — and then crash 73%.

It’s different this time:

Valuations of the biggest stocks now are nowhere near as stretched as they were in 1999. In some areas, though, it’s even frothier: SanDisk, a maker of commodity flash memory, is up 1,100% over the past year. In 1999, it was up a mere 679%.

The Brunson burner is cooking:

Sports writer Lev Akabas calculates that statistically, Jalen Brunson is the best clutch performer in NBA history. This, too, raises the cost of tickets. Tyler Cowen says there are more "must-see" players in the NBA compared to earlier eras. (Bulls fans will beg to differ on both counts, I know.)

Roadtrip! 

Akabas also notes that New York-based Knicks fans can fly to see Game 2 of the finals in San Antonio for less than half the cost of taking the subway to see Game 3 in New York.

$8,000 only gets you in the door:

I’m not sure where Akabas thinks he can get a ticket to MSG for $4,000. On SeatGeek, tickets start at $8,000. At the high end, two courtside seats reportedly sold for $279,804 and the WSJ reports a single ticket going for $176,000. 

Can a sporting event possibly be worth $8,000, let alone $170,000?

If your team wins, maybe.

You only have to amortize the cost over a lifetime of memories.

Have a great weekend, Knicks fans.

— Byron Gilliam

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