There’s a chill in the air — it’s actually been here all year.

New tokens took a pummeling in 2025, to the tune of $87 billion (59%) of fully diluted value lost.

Today, we have a takeover post from Shaunda Devens of the 0xResearch newsletter. Shaunda breaks down how tokens lagged behind in 2025, and what separated successful launches from the mainstream.

The deaths of new launches

With year-end approaching, it’s worth zooming out on 2025’s worst tape: new token launches. A recent post by Ahboyash put hard numbers behind what many felt intuitively. Across 117 tokens launched in 2025, returns are overwhelmingly negative. The median token is down ~71% versus its listing fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only 17/117 (15%) trade above launch valuation, while roughly 40% are down more than 80%.

The downside is both broad and severe: 100/117 tokens (85%) are underwater. Losses cluster most heavily in the 50–90% drawdown range, which represents the largest share of launches.

At the extreme tail, 15 tokens have declined more than 90%, including high-profile launches such as Berachain (-93%), Animecoin (-94%), and Bio Protocol (-93%).

In aggregate, the cohort’s total FDV has compressed from $139 billion at listing to $54 billion today, implying roughly $87 billion (59%) of “paper” FDV destruction, excluding any projects that effectively went to zero.

The dispersion on the right tail is real, but concentrated. The worst performers skew toward infrastructure and gaming, with Syndicate (-93.6%) and Animecoin (-93.6%) among the laggards. Meanwhile, the standout winners are largely later-stage, H2 launches with lower starting valuations, including Aster (+745%), Yooldo Games (+538%), and Humanity (+323%).

— Shaunda Devens