Hey there! The Forward Guidance newsletter’s Casey Wagner is back again with some updates.

While we wait for word from London on the status of a China-US trade agreement, she unpacks what the data has to say about bitcoin decoupling. Let’s do it:

Bitcoin or Big Tech?

Another day, another bitcoin rally. 

After making a run approaching its all-time high last night, bitcoin was back in the red this afternoon, hovering around $109,400 and trading 0.6% lower over the past 24 hours as of 4 pm ET. 

Bitcoin’s latest move is similar to what it did three weeks ago, when the largest cryptocurrency notched a new all-time high just shy of $112,000. BTC went from around $103,000 to above $110,000 in roughly two days. 

As Noelle Acheson pointed out in today’s Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, bitcoin’s late-May rally coincided with a surge in short liquidations. In other words, investors were buying up BTC to cover their leveraged short positions. 

Short BTC liquidations lately are similarly high, so Acheson estimates that last night’s run up was likely driven by leverage covering vs. new spot investors. I’d have to agree. 

That being said, bitcoin often trades like a Big Tech stock: It’s high volatility and, at least in recent months (dare I say years), has not been insulated from macroeconomic moves. 

Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq Composite is currently 0.81, according to data from Yahoo Finance. The crypto’s correlation with gold has recently moved negative, now sitting at -0.07, per Yahoo Finance. 

The “bitcoin is digital gold” narrative has certainly lost steam in recent years, with the cryptocurrency rising and falling along with risk appetites. Just look at what happened in April: BTC lost more than 11% the week after April 2 (Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day”). The S&P 500 shed 12%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 13%. 

Before the HODLers come for me, yes, bitcoin bounced back stronger than stocks. Since April 2, BTC has gained around 29%. The S&P 500 is up 7%, and the Nasdaq Composite has gained just under 12%.  

I still think bitcoin is going to trade on big macro news (interest rate decisions, inflation data, employment reports, etc.), but I’ll add that Big Tech companies are obviously more vulnerable to tariff policies, and we’ve seen that in the price action. 

Apple is down more than 17% year to date. Alphabet has lost more than 5% since the start of 2025. 

Bitcoin is up more than 16%. 

Looking ahead, the eight biggest US tech stocks (Mag 7 plus Broadcom) have seen an average downward earnings revision for Q2 of -5.9% (-2.2% if you exclude Tesla). Half of these names are currently underperforming the S&P year to date (Tesla, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon). 

I don’t think it’s too far-fetched to expect that BTC will continue to outperform these stocks, at least until the trade war settles down (assuming it does settle down, of course). Reminder that this is not investment advice, just your local newsletter writer taking a look into her crystal ball. 

With the second quarter nearing an end and few updates on trade deals, we’ll just have to wait and see.

— Casey Wagner

P.S If you liked what you read today, you can get a daily edition in your inbox. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter here.

_{Brought to you by:}

ZKsync is accelerating institutional blockchain adoption and the rise of tokenization. Institutions choose ZKsync to move tokenized assets securely across enterprises while preserving privacy and governance.

With gasless transactions, seamless onboarding, and scalable ZK infrastructure, enterprises can transfer financial products and data privately using ZK Stack — an open-source, trustless blockchain platform designed for speed, low costs, security, and interoperability without sacrificing control.

Less than 3 weeks away!

Hear from leaders like Peter Todd, Joseph Lubin, and Joshua Tobkin — and be a part of our largest hackathon yet with over $100K+ on the line.

Hackers enter free; every minute counts.

June 24-26 | Brooklyn, NY